A study investigated why residential contractors and consumers resisted replacing gas space heating systems with electric alternatives. The public agency client sought to understand why conversion incentives underperformed in rural and disadvantaged areas. Available data included 53 contractor interviews, three ride-along observations, and 217 homeowner surveys.
The decision behind the question
A public agency wanted to know why conversion incentives for replacing gas space heating underperformed in rural and disadvantaged areas, particularly among contractors.
Data and methods used
Fifty-three contractor interviews, three ride-along observations, and 217 homeowner surveys were analyzed together. Interview and observation material was read with a large language model into themes, and the survey data was modelled for the drivers of stated willingness to convert.
What the analysis found
- •Contractors avoided electric conversions mainly because of job-time risk and parts availability, not scepticism about the technology.
- •Homeowners in rural areas discounted the incentive because it did not cover the electrical upgrade work the conversion triggered.
- •Ride-alongs showed that the decision was often made on site by the installer, not by the homeowner in advance.
What changed as a result
The agency redirected part of the incentive toward contractor-side costs and the electrical upgrade step, which was where the conversion was actually stalling.
Related work is grouped under Climate & Energy, and the methods used here are described in more detail under analytical capabilities.
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