A rigorous statistical evaluation of energy savings programs analyzed consumption data to measure the effectiveness of efficiency interventions. The study provided actionable insights for optimizing energy conservation strategies and program design.
The decision behind the question
An efficiency programme needed to know how much of its reported savings were real, measured against what consumption would have been without the intervention.
Data and methods used
Pre- and post-intervention consumption data was analyzed with a modelled counterfactual baseline, and effect estimates were reported per measure with confidence ranges rather than as a single programme-level number.
What the analysis found
- •Programme-level savings held up, but the contribution was highly uneven across individual measures.
- •Two measures showed effects indistinguishable from zero once the baseline was modelled properly.
- •Savings persistence declined measurably after the first year for one measure category.
What changed as a result
Programme design was rebalanced toward the measures with durable, measurable savings, and the underperforming measures were retired.
Related work is grouped under Climate & Energy, and the methods used here are described in more detail under analytical capabilities.
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